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Currency Speculators increased US Dollar bearish bets last week

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US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-9.4 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators added to their bearish bets for the US dollar this week after reducing their bearishness the week before.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar position totaling $-9.4 billion as of Tuesday August 22nd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-0.56 billion from the $-8.84 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

US dollar bets has fallen eight out of the past nine weeks and are now at the second most bearish level since turning over from an overall long position to a short position on July 18th. The US dollar has remained in a short position for a six consecutive weeks.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies saw only one weekly change above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • British pound sterling bets fell by over -14,000 contracts this week and have declined for two consecutive weeks as well as four out of the past five weeks. The GBP speculator standing is now at the most bearish point since May 9th when net positions totaled -46,798 contracts.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (8,709 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (3,406 contracts), Australian dollar (872 contracts) and the Mexican peso (2,769 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-14,040 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-806 contracts), Canadian dollar (-250 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-2,957 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -114,526 -10,157 87,976 8,709
GBP 44,993 11,718 -45,900 -14,040
JPY 82,791 -6,382 -74,086 3,406
CHF 4,738 366 -1,987 -806
CAD -66,306 2,803 51,099 -250
AUD -75,872 1,593 60,484 872
NZD -24,620 2,965 21,882 -2,957
MXN -103,872 -3,299 97,618 2,769

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

 

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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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