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Currency Speculators pushed US Dollar bearish positions higher for 3rd week

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US Dollar net speculator positions dropped to $-14.61 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bearish bets of the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-14.61 billion as of Tuesday March 13th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-3.15 billion from the $-11.46 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (aggregate total of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate dollar position has fallen for three straight weeks and is now at the most bearish level since October 10th when the position totaled $-15.42 billion.


Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contracts for the speculator category.

The Euro speculative positions increased by over +13,000 net contracts this week after declining for four out of the past five weeks. The jump in the euro position brings the current position to just below the record high level of +148,742 that was reached on January 30th.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (13,408 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (2,763 contracts), Japanese yen (7,306 contracts), Swiss franc (1,905 contracts) and the Mexican peso (3,645 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Canadian dollar (-145 contracts), Australian dollar (-3,914 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-2,846 contracts)


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -178,063 -4,233 146,380 13,408
GBP -21,533 -2,411 8,027 2,763
JPY 70,746 -6,135 -79,539 7,306
CHF 7,221 -75 -6,572 1,905
CAD -23,152 -522 19,420 -145
AUD -3,151 1,843 -779 -3,914
NZD 1,226 2,400 -2,816 -2,846
MXN -90,629 -4,101 86,940 3,645


This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price


British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com


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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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