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Currency Speculators raised US Dollar bearish bets for 5th week

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US Dollar net speculator positions dropped to $-13.73 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to bet against the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an aggregate US dollar net position totaling $-13.73 billion as of Tuesday January 30th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-2.26 billion from the $-11.47 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate dollar position has now seen increased bearishness for five straight weeks and the overall level is at its most bearish threshold since October 10th 2017 when the standing was $-15.42 billion.


Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

This week saw two substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contracts for the speculator category.

The Canadian dollar positions rose by over +10,000 bets this week and has gained for four consecutive week. The overall CAD level is now at the highest level in six weeks at +33,465 contracts.

The Mexican peso positions advanced by over +18,000 bets this week following a rise by over 14,000 bets last week and a gain by over +16,000 bets two weeks ago. The overall peso level is at the highest level in seven weeks at +80,045 contracts.

The Euro speculative positions gained by a further +4,025 contracts this week and pushed its current record high bullish level higher for a second straight week at +148,742 net contracts.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (4,025 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (8,174 contracts), Swiss franc (1,788 contracts), Canadian dollar (10,908 contracts), New Zealand dollar (4,936 contracts) and the Mexican peso (18,890 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-1,304 weekly change in contracts) and the Australian dollar (-3,528 contracts).


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -191,187 1,603 148,742 4,025
GBP -50,643 -2,232 31,741 -1,304
JPY 110,204 -16,429 -114,696 8,174
CHF 22,287 -6,462 -20,327 1,788
CAD -57,426 -10,832 33,465 10,908
AUD -24,363 3,737 13,151 -3,528
NZD -5,005 -6,249 3,470 4,936
MXN -83,606 -18,530 80,045 18,890


This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price



British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com


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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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