US Dollar net speculator positions rose last week to +$10.52 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators increased their bets in favor of the US dollar for a second consecutive week and to the highest level since early August.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$10.52 billion as of Tuesday October 4th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$0.82 billion from the +$9.70 billion total long position that was registered on September 27th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The US dollar speculative level is above the +$10 billion level for the first time in eight weeks and now currently sits at the highest level since August 9th when the aggregate US dollar bullish position equaled +$11.41 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the only major currencies that improved against the US dollar were the Australian dollar (+8,930 weekly change in contracts) and the Swiss franc (+3,020 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-9,858 weekly change in contracts), euro (-6,029 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,462 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,037 contracts), Japanese yen (-197 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-19 contracts).
This latest COT data is through Tuesday October 4th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
British Pound Sterling:
New Zealand Dollar:
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com