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Currency Speculators trimmed US Dollar net positions after 4 weeks of gains

By CountingPips.com

US Dollar net speculator positions slipped last week to +$12.81 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly decreased their bullish bets for the US dollar last week after dollar bets had risen the previous four weeks in a row.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$12.81 billion as of Tuesday August 2nd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$0.85 billion from the +$13.66 billion total long position that was registered on July 26th, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate dollar speculative position has now been over +$10 billion for three consecutive weeks.

This latest data reflects large speculator positions as of Tuesday August 2nd and does not take into consideration data later in the week including Friday’s government jobs report.


Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the euro (+8,497 weekly change in contracts) and Japanese yen (+6,742 contracts).

The currencies on the downside of speculative bets versus the dollar were the Canadian dollar (-5,422 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-1,943 contracts), Mexican peso (-5,561 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-2,661 contracts).

The Australian dollar (-147 weekly change in contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+2 contracts), meanwhile, were virtually unchanged on the week.

Notable changes:

  • Euro speculative positions rebounded last week after falling for the previous six straight weeks
  • British pound positions continued their downfall with a decrease for a fifth straight week
  • Swiss franc positions fell back over to negative (short) territory at -1,715 contracts for the first time since June 7th
  • Japanese yen positions rose last week after falling in each of the previous three weeks
  • Canadian dollar bets declined following five weeks straight of gaining positions


This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price




British Pound Sterling:



Japanese Yen:



Swiss Franc:



Canadian Dollar:



Australian Dollar:



New Zealand Dollar:



Mexican Peso:



*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com




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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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