Article by ForexTime
July has certainly been a painful trading month for the Greenback, with today’s second quarter economic growth figures from the US offering little support to the beleaguered currency. The US economy expanded by 2.6% in the second quarter of 2017 on the back of strong consumer spending which was a solid pick up from the soft first quarter growth reading of 1.2%. Although US GDP printed in line with expectations, price action suggests that concerns over stubbornly low inflation in the US, as well as political risk, continue to weigh heavily on the Dollar.
With the Greenback falling into the category of currency’s that have become increasingly sensitive to monetary policy speculations, and market expectations for a 25 basis point rate hike in December standing at 46.6%, further downside may be on the cards. Dollar bullish investors are clearly lacking the inspiration to support prices and may turn towards next week’s NFP report for further insight into the health of the US economy and labor force.
From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA, while the MACD has crossed to the downside. A breakdown below 93.40 should encourage a further selloff towards 93.00.
Gold hits fresh 6-week high
It has been a very lively week for Gold with bulls thrown a lifeline after the Federal Reserve’s cautious outlook on inflation punished the US Dollar and weighed heavily on the prospects for higher rates. The yellow metal ventured higher during Friday’s trading session with prices lurching towards $1265 following the release of the US Q2 GDP data. Although the US data was in line with expectations, the concerns over low inflation attracted Dollar bears ultimately supporting Gold. With the probability of the Federal Reserve raising US interest rates in December by 25 basis points currently below 50%, the zero yielding metal is likely to remain supported ahead of NFP next week. From a technical standpoint, the breakout above $1260 should encourage a further incline higher towards $1268.
Commodity spotlight – WTI Crude
WTI Crude bulls were inspired this week by OPEC’s optimism over the current production cut deal while Dollar weakness complimented the commodity’s upside gains. With the oversupply concerns still a dominant theme that continues to fuel the bearish sentiment towards WTI, questions should be raised over how sustainable the current rally is. Although the declining US crude stock piles have also played a role in oil’s resurgence, the ongoing concerns over rising U.S oil production may create headwinds for short term bulls down the road. From a technical standpoint, WTI Crude has staged an incredible rebound from the $45.50 level this week with prices currently trading around $49.00. Previous resistance around $48 may transform into a dynamic support that encourages a further incline higher towards $50.
Silver edges towards$16.80 resistance
A vulnerable Dollar has been the engine behind Silver’s appreciation this week with prices lurching towards $16.80 during Thursday’s trading session. Prices are turning increasingly bullish on the daily charts with a breakout above $16.80 encouraging a further appreciation higher towards $17.00. From a technical standpoint, prices are trading above the daily 20 SMA while the MACD has crossed to the upside. A decisive breakout and daily close above the $16.80 lower higher is required for silver to enter a bullish trend on the daily charts.
Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Article by ForexTime
ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com