US Dollar net speculator positions dipped last week to +$5.29 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators reduced their US dollar bullish bets for a fifth straight week last week. The data from the individual currencies for the week showed that British pound speculators bet in favor of the British currency for the first time in nine weeks.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$5.29 billion as of Tuesday August 30th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.05 billion from the +$6.34 billion total long position that was registered on August 23rd, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
The aggregate US dollar speculative position remains at its lowest level since July 5th when positions totaled +$4.18 billion contracts and the overall position remains under the +$10 billion level for a third consecutive week.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed the major currencies that improved the most against the US dollar were the Swiss franc (+6,323 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (+5,666 contracts), Japanese yen (+3,345 contracts), New Zealand dollar (+2,771 contracts) and the British pound sterling (+2,493 contracts).
The currencies on the downside of speculative bets last week versus the dollar were the euro (-5,267 weekly change in contracts), Mexican peso (-4,693 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-191 contracts).
- British pound speculative positions increased last week for the first time in nine weeks although the currency remains in a deeply short speculative position near the -100,000 net contracts level
- Japanese yen speculative positions have gained for the fifth straight week
- Euro positions fell for the first time in five weeks
- Australian dollar positions dipped slightly and declined for the first time in four weeks
- Swiss franc positions rose rather sharply and gained for a second week as net positions increased to a stronger overall net long position against the dollar of +8,208 contracts
- Canadian dollar bets gained for a second straight week last week and showed its largest bullish long position of the last five weeks
- New Zealand dollar positions rebounded last week after falling for three weeks in a row and rose back into a small overall net long position of +2,771 contracts.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
British Pound Sterling:
New Zealand Dollar:
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com