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Forex Speculators continued to raise bearish US Dollar positions this week

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US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-13.19 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bearish bets against the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar position totaling $-13.19 billion as of Tuesday September 19th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-1.62 billion from the $-11.57 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate US dollar position is down for five straight weeks and a whopping twelve out of the past thirteen weeks with the only gain coming on August 15th.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies had three weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • British pound sterling bets jumped mightily by over +35,000 net contracts this week on the back of higher inflation and a possible interest rate increase coming. The GBP speculative standing is now at its best level since November 2015.
  • Euro bets fell by over -10,000 bets for a second straight week and are down for three out of the last four weeks. Overall, euro bets are still in a bullish standing at +62,753 net contracts but at the lowest level in twelve weeks.
  • Mexican peso bets dropped by over -40,000 contracts this week after speculators had pushed bullish positions to the highest speculative level of the year above +115,000 net contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the British pound sterling (35,924 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (5,975 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,347 contracts) and the Australian dollar (9,479 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the euro (-23,305 weekly change in contracts),  Swiss franc (-255 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-5,680 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-40,046 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -87,338 28,847 62,753 -23,305
GBP 5,845 -38,624 -10,161 35,924
JPY 67,008 -494 -51,322 5,975
CHF 4,554 -654 -1,569 -255
CAD -79,971 -5,900 58,846 8,347
AUD -87,022 -3,769 72,512 9,479
NZD -8,673 5,871 6,670 -5,680
MXN -83,142 39,976 76,952 -40,046

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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