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Forex Speculators raised US Dollar bullish bets for 2nd week

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US Dollar net speculator positions now at $-15.42 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bets for the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling $-15.42 billion as of Tuesday October 10th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $1.41 billion from the $-16.83 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

US dollar aggregate bets have now gone higher for a second straight week after having fallen for the previous six weeks.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies had only one weekly change above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • Japanese yen bets declined by over -16,000 contracts on the week and this marked the third straight week of a Japanese yen speculative decline by over -10,000 contracts.  Short bets are now back over the -100,000 contract level for the first time since since August 1st when bets totaled -112,196 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (7,246 weekly change in contracts) and the Canadian dollar (1,264 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the British pound sterling (-4,441 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (-16,776 contracts), Swiss franc (-969 contracts), Australian dollar (-2,630 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,389 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-6,367 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -116,444 -7,136 98,079 7,246
GBP -19,935 11,426 15,508 -4,441
JPY 123,346 16,913 -101,419 -16,776
CHF 15,331 3,810 -4,262 -969
CAD -97,535 -479 76,392 1,264
AUD -79,397 2,786 69,182 -2,630
NZD -6,550 3,121 5,729 -2,389
MXN -86,176 8,694 82,749 -6,367

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

 

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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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