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Forex Speculators reduced US Dollar bearish positions for 3rd week

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-12.65 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on bearish bets of the US dollar again this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-12.65 billion as of Tuesday October 17th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $2.77 billion from the $-15.42 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate speculative bearish position of the dollar has now declined for a third week and is at the least bearish level since September 12th. The dollar position has been in bearish territory for fourteen straight weeks after crossing into a bearish position on July 18th.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies saw two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

  • British pound sterling positions fell by over -10,000 contracts this week after declining by over -4,000 the previous week. The GBP speculative bets remain in a small bullish position at +5,047 contracts.
  • Mexican peso positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts and fell for a second week. Peso positions continue to be in a strong bullish position with total bets at +71,067 contracts.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the Japanese yen (133 weekly change in contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (1,248 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-7,627 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-10,461 contracts), Swiss franc (-669 contracts), Canadian dollar (-1,306 contracts), Australian dollar (-7,382 contracts), and the Mexican peso (-11,682 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -111,090 5,354 90,452 -7,627
GBP -8,615 11,320 5,047 -10,461
JPY 122,887 -459 -101,286 133
CHF 17,285 1,954 -4,931 -669
CAD -95,735 1,800 75,086 -1,306
AUD -74,301 5,096 61,800 -7,382
NZD -7,556 -1,006 6,977 1,248
MXN -73,598 12,578 71,067 -11,682

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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