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FX Speculators added to US Dollar bearish positions for 4th week

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US Dollar Speculator positions fell to $-11.47 billion, Euro bets at new record

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bearishness of the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar net position totaling $-11.47 billion as of Tuesday January 23rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-1.88 billion from the $-9.59 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate US dollar position has fallen for four straight weeks and has dropped to the most bearish position since October 17th when the aggregate position totaled $-12.65 billion.


Weekly Speculator Contract Changes: 

This week saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the individual currency contracts for the speculator category.

The Mexican peso positions rose by over +14,000 bets this week following a gain by over 16,000 bets last week. The overall peso level is now at the highest level in six weeks at +61,155 contracts.

Also of note is that the Euro speculative positions gained by 5,227 contracts this week and just slightly surpassed the previous record high bullish level (recorded 2 weeks ago) and established a new record high at +144,717 net contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar this week were the euro (5,227 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (6,841 contracts), Canadian dollar (5,001 contracts), Australian dollar (6,605 contracts), New Zealand dollar (6,525 contracts) and the Mexican peso (14,360 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-3,520 weekly change in contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,009 contracts).


Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx -192,790 -10,943 144,717 5,227
GBP -48,411 -6,914 33,045 6,841
JPY 126,633 3,605 -122,870 -3,520
CHF 28,749 -3,745 -22,115 -1,009
CAD -46,594 -6,524 22,557 5,001
AUD -28,100 -11,404 16,679 6,605
NZD 1,244 -6,483 -1,466 6,525
MXN -65,076 -16,739 61,155 14,360


This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price



British Pound Sterling:


Japanese Yen:


Swiss Franc:


Canadian Dollar:


Australian Dollar:


New Zealand Dollar:


Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com



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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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