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Speculators cooled off their US Dollar bullish bets for 1st time in 4 weeks

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US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $15.27 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators reduced their bullish bets for the US dollar last week following three straight weeks of rises.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $15.27 billion as of Tuesday March 28th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-3.17 billion from the $18.44 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Last week’s speculative aggregate position decline was the largest one week fall since December 20th when the one week decrease was by $-5.56 billion. The US dollar position has remained above the $15 billion level for four straight weeks after falling under this threshold on February 28th.

 

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (11,739 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (3,769 contracts), Japanese yen (13,806 contracts) and the Australian dollar (8,183 contracts) .

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the Swiss franc (-4,413 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (-3,814 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-19 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-1,456 contracts).

 

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

Currency Net Commercials Comms Weekly Chg Net Speculators Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx 5932 -10162 -7923 11739
GBP 111206 -8665 -104075 3769
JPY 70829 -18646 -53181 13806
CHF 19803 -1554 -16392 -4413
CAD 36441 3977 -28217 -3814
AUD -58222 -2539 53138 8183
NZD 13369 -131 -12629 -19
MXN -1811 -1023 -4737 -1456

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

 

British Pound Sterling:

 

Japanese Yen:

 

Swiss Franc:

 

Canadian Dollar:

 

Australian Dollar:

 

New Zealand Dollar:

 

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

 

 

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About Louie Lewis

Louie Lewis
Successful forex trading starts with you first. Then comes the actual strategies and techniques. I have been involved with forex and forex trading for a few years now. It is a wonderful way to build wealth. The learning never stops and I want to help others along their journey into this wonderful market of opportunity.

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